Incorrect? Incorrect Like A Fox!

Like many other people in attendance at the Lewes Fire Hall the other night for a public meeting on the update of the Sussex County Comprehensive Land Use Plan, I was astounded by a claim made by Rich Collins, the sunnily optimistic conservative spokes-speaker of the pro-development lobby in Sussex County:

Mr. Collins, who also represents the Positive Growth Alliance, said the problem may be that Sussex County isn’t growing quickly enough. He based that on estimates that show the county population is rapidly growing older and the death rate is exceeding the birth rate. (From Sussex’s land future debated, by Michael Short, Sussex Post)

This report, while accurate, doesn't convey the full extent of what Mr. Collins claims. What he said was, "growth may not be our problem, maybe the lack of growth" is the problem.

If you listen to the county's MP3 of that part of the proceedings (About a minute or two in), you find Rich quoting from the latest Delaware Population Consortium population projections series. He points to the projected amount of population growth, which the Consortium reports in 5-year increments, and says, accurately, that the amount of new population added to the county is projected to drop from 17,867 new residents added between 2000 and 2005 to 12,055 new residents added between 2020 and 2025.

Mr. Collins' conclusion? "Now, I don't have my calculator, but thats, what, about a 33 percent decline in growth."

Rich is either very adept at math on the fly, or he did the calculations before-hand and his aw-shucks act is just that.

What those numbers represent is a 32.5 percent difference between the rate of growth over the last half-decade and the projected rate of growth 20 years from now. The difference is largely due to the fact that, as a retirement area, eastern Sussex County will continue to have a declining birth rate and a burgeoning death rate. That's just demographics. What will keep population change on the positive side will be continued strong migration into Sussex County.


In fact, if you look at the whole of the Consortium's projections, you see that Sussex County is expected to grow by almost 73,000 people between now and 2030. That's a 40 percent growth in population and equal to moving all of the current population of Wilmington, plus a few neighborhoods worth of Elsmere, into Sussex.

I hesitated to write about this. I'm employed by the State Planning Office, which is often at odds with Mr. Collins. I would have let it go had it not made it into the news reports. My motivation to address this is mostly because I also serve as the secretary of the Delaware Population Consortium and take some pride in the work that that group does. I feel a responsibility to step in when it looks like the Consortium's projections are being mis-used.

Mr. Collins may simply be mistaken; he may simply not understand the data he is looking at. But I don't think so. I think Rich is trying to muddy the discussion and sow seeds of doubt about the extent of the problem facing Sussex County.

Searching for Bay Ice and Finding, Again, a White Deer

As we went through another in a string of very cold days today, I started wondering whether there might be ice anywhere in the Delaware Bay. Driving up and down the state this week, I have seen ice on the ponds and some of the slower rivers. And there were ice chunks in the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal.

So I decided to pay another visit to the point at Cape Henlopen and take a look.

I found some ice; thin floes blown ashore on the inside curve of the point. The ice was a few inches thick, and spread out into the shallowest part of the bay, towards the lighthouse.

I also found the white deer that I'd spotted on my last trip to Cape Henlopen Park.

This time I got a clearer photo of the deer's head, which is brown. That suggests that this is a deer in moult, and not an albino, as I had first thought. In fact, this may be another animal entirely.

In any case, it was fun to see this. I just wish my camera was better suited to long-range telephoto work.

Evidence That There Is Hope

We spent this morning at the Indian River School District Spelling Bee where Christina was a contestant in the fifth grade division. She was one of the top four spellers in fifth grade at the Southern Delaware School of the Arts and so was sent to the District-wide contest as one of the representatives of her school.

I was loosely familiar with this event. Christina's older sister Colleen was a contestant herself one year.

Christina did well; she lasted past the preliminary rounds but stumbled on a word that, without the pressure of competition, she would have spelled correctly. She came out into the audience to sit with us and spelled almost every subsequent word in the contest correctly in a whispered aside to her mother and me.

An SDSA classmate of Christina's was the winner. He was a strong speller, though the young man who placed second seemed the more confident. I think that confidence proved to be his downfall. Almost all the others took advantage of their right to write down the word to see the spelling before answering to the judges. This kid never touched pencil to paper; in each round he simply paused in thought and then spelled his words. I believe the lack of the letter he dropped from "influence" would have been obvious to him had he written it out first.

I was pleased to see that the final five spellers were all boys. It may be an erroneous stereotype, but I would have expected the girls to be the better spellers. I'm glad I was proven wrong.

(Some of) What I Like About snow

We got a moderate amount of snow in Delaware this week. It was very cold, so our snow was wonderfully fluffy. We're more used to heavy wet snow.

Not this time. This week's snow was more like what they see well up north. As a result, our scant two inches gave us maximum visual pleasure.

We have gotten so little snow of late that it doesn't take much to satisfy my snowfall jones. For a while.

Brief Praise for a Few Politicians

I've noticed two neat news briefs out on the web that give me some hope for our political class.

Let's Talk
Out west in Utah, a state representative has a wiki site up to bring the grass-roots folks into the legislative discussion. Politicopia uses wiki pages to allow for pro and con discussions of bills before the Utah legislature. It's getting some national attention; I found it via the NCSL blog The Thicket.

Representative Steve Urquhart says the idea started to develop some years ago:

Because I wanted to change the fact that people-related-to-me often outnumbered people-not-related-to-me at town meetings, I invited my constituents to join me in a hayfield for hot-air balloon rides and donuts.

That didn't really get him any more input, but he kept thinking about ways to get more feedback from folks. A chain of friends, contacts, brainstorming and lucky breaks eventually led to the use of a wiki site to allow for community discussions of bills and issues.

I think this bears watching. And maybe adopting. Rep. Urquhart's blog is worth a look as well.

Does He Have a Prayer?
Presidential handicappers aren't too sanguine about Mike Huckabee's chances to get the Republican Party's nomination for President, but I like the guy. I have several colleagues in the GIS world who worked in his government in Arkansas and report that he is practical, no-nonsense sort. In the several interviews I've heard, Mr. Huckabee sounds like a decent and smart guy.

I found more evidence in a posting on the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire blog: Huckabee: Families, Not Schools, Should Teach Prayer.

The family that prays together doesn’t have to worry about the absence of government-mandated prayer in public schools, Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee told a group of reporters today.

A good point. And:

Huckabee said he never could understand why so many people “railed against (the absence of) prayer in schools when they didn’t even pray at home.”

Governor Huckabee was formerly a Southern Baptist Minister.

Wanted (Desperately): A Sense of Humor

I've been missing Molly Ivans, and I didn't even know it.

America needs to lighten-up. We take ourselves far too seriously. We're losing the ability to laugh at ourselves, and we need that ability, lest we forget how truly foolish we all are.

Attack of the Cartoon Goofies
A guerrilla marketing campaign for a TV cartoon paralyzed parts of Boston this week. As part of a marketing campaign for Aqua Teen Hunger Force, panels of LED pixels portraying a pair of pusillanimous characters from the cartoon were placed around several cities over the last few weeks. Flickr-user xjohnpaulx found them in Philadelphia earlier this month. Only in Boston was this seen as a possible terrorist attack.

From the close-up photos of one of the devices that I've seen, it should have been pretty obvious that these aren't any sort of bomb. But I suppose someone spotted one, thought it suspicious, and called the authorities.

And if anything is clear these days, we take stuff terribly seriously.

The devices were blown up. The two young men who put them up were arrested, charged, and released on bail. Luckily, they see the humor. They refused to talk with reporters about anything but the history of hair styles. Watch the second video in this link. It's worth it.

Politician, Stifle Thyself
Can Joe Biden be elected president? He's certainly qualified, but some people are worried about his electability. Other people hate him with an astoundingly unreasoning passion.

Senator Biden got in all sorts of trouble this week; as far as I can tell it was because he speaks like me. Joe Biden forgot to measure, focus-group-test, and vet his words before he made what he thought was a flattering remark about Barak Obama.

I can understand how those words could be construed as insulting, but their intention was so incredibly clearly not insulting. Senator Obama didn't seem insulted.

But our political culture demands that we take any utterance at its worst, with no sense of humor whatever.

This is Where I Miss Molly Ivans
Molly Ivans was as sharp a political observer as this nation has ever seen. Her columns, looking at the wonderful world of Texas politics and later at the odd reality of national politics, were biting, but funny.

Back in 1993, she wrote a column (The Fun's in the Fight) in which she encourages activists to keep their sense of fun as they fight for their causes. She tells about great characters and how they spiced up their times. She describes the reaction of Austin progressives to a march by bussed-in KKK folks (Mass mooning).

So keep fightin' for freedom and justice, beloveds, but don't you forget to have fun doin' it. Lord, let your laughter ring forth. Be outrageous, ridicule the fraidy-cats, rejoice in all the oddities that freedom can produce. And when you get through kickin' ass and celebratin' the sheer joy of a good fight, be sure to tell those who come after how much fun it was.

We need to find this spirit again.

When the Music Hits Me Just Right

I had another one of those great runs of music today. There are times when, as I flip around among my favorite channels on the satellite radio in my car, I find song after song that I love. And occasionally, something new and delightful.

This evening was like that. Song after song after song. And then David Dye, of the World Cafe, presented me with Josh Ritter's Girl in the War.

I know I've heard music from this guy before, and I remember thinking him pleasant, but I hadn't heard this song.

He has a pleasant nice voice, accompanied by delicate acoustic guitar picking. It was the lyrics that hit me:

Peter said to Paul you know all those words we wrote
Are just the rules of the game and the rules are the first to go
But now talking to God is Laurel begging Hardy for a gun
I got a girl in the war man I wonder what it is we done

And

Paul said to Peter you got to rock yourself a little harder
Pretend the dove from above is a dragon and your feet are on fire
But I got a girl in the war Paul her eyes are like champagne
They sparkle bubble over and in the morning all you got is rain

Peter and Paul (the Apostles?) seem to be discussing great metaphysical issues, but keep coming back to "I got a girl in the war." That does two things. It brings us back to what's most important on a basic, personal level. And it spins the old war-time, homefront cliche from the "girl back home" to the "girl in the war."

Looking into this song this evening led me to a video (quicktime) of Ritter performing this song at a Center for American Progress event last fall.

"I came 2000 miles to play you this song," he says. "I meant to write about this country, and it came out sounding like a love song."

Our Land Is a Bit Less Delmarvalous Today

Scorchy Tawes has died. He was 86.

For years, Scorchy was a local television personality; the kind you are proud to have on your set.

He produced and narrated human interest and nature stories for WBOC television, out of Salisbury. His stories were folksy and sappy. He focused on the small joys of small town life. And on the grand beauty of the Delmarva Peninsula. He talked about "wandering this delmarvalous land of ours."

When he retired they tried to replace him, but the new guy, though competent, just wasn't Scorchy.

Scorchy did a story on the Lovely Karen once. It was back when she was working as a music therapist at Stockley Center. She had a bell choir of made up of some of her clients and Scorchy came in to film them playing Christmas carols. It was sweet.

There's irony in the timing of Scorchy's death. He'll be upstaged in the news cycle by the death of Barbaro. But he would have been all over that story; it's just the sort of story that he loved.

Rest in Peace Scorchy Tawes. You helped define life in Southern Delaware and the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

Delaware's Unique Border

A blog called Strange Maps has started looking at Delaware's rather unique border. There are two posts, so far. It's interesting to see the various oddities of my state's boundary discussed by an "outsider." I advise bringing along a pinch of salt to take when you read the Strange Maps posts, there are a few very minor mistakes.

My day-job involves mapping, geospatial data, and working with things like the border in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software. I also work closely with my friend Sandy Schenck of the Delaware Geological Survey. Sandy's first job, many years ago, was finding and maintaining the 179 stone boundary monuments that mark the Delaware border. He wrote a wonderful monograph on the boundary. That's my authoritative source on these issues.

The images I've used in this post, by the way, were created using the Delaware Data Mapping and Integration Lab -- The DataMIL -- which provides a digital base map of Delaware, replacing the old paper topographic map series with a more frequently updated, web-based, topo map.

The first Strange Maps post is Where Delaware Met Pennsylvania (1): the Twelve Mile Circle. It looks at the odd border issues caused by the decree in colonial times that a circle with a radius of 12 miles, centered on the town of New Castle, be used as a boundary.

Strange Maps describes this as "the only US boundary that’s a true arc." That's sort-of true; it's the only one that is circular. It is not, in fact, a true arc. The chain used to measure the 12 miles and so to survey that part of the boundary, had to be stretched out over and over again. The links started to stretch, just a bit, throwing off the measurements. Somewhere along the line, the surveyors got themselves a fresh chain, at least once.

The result is a boundary that is a compound of degraded arc sections. Subtle, and maybe even silly. But true.

Strange Maps also points out that the boundary was described as everything within the 12 miles up to the shoreline of what is now New Jersey. The result of that, and of a 1930s Supreme Court decision, has been that the state boundary is, in fact, the mean-low water line as it existed in 1934. There are places where the shoreline on the Jersey side has filled-in and moved out, by accretion, to where it now lies within Delaware.

We try not to point this out too explicitly; it upsets our neighbors in New Jersey. That, and the fact that Delaware regulates what happens over the river bottom, which has so far stymied a proposed Liquid Natural Gas terminal in the Camden area.

The second "Where Delaware Met Pennsylvania" post looks at the "Wedge". This is a wedge-shaped bit of land that for a time was not in Delaware, not in Pennsylvania, and not in Maryland. It was another anomaly caused by the 12-mile circle and by a disconnect between what 17th-Century cartography expected to find and what 17th-Century surveying actually did find.

It's that bit beneath that "shelf" where the three states meet. Just above Newark.

I understand that it was briefly a haven for outlaws, who would flee there because no lawmen had jurisdiction. At least, until the states got together and decided to make it part of Delaware.

This almost forgotten bit of history lives on in some of the place names north of Newark like "Top of the Wedge" or "Wedge Hills."

These are just a few of the many strange truths about the Delaware border. For example, many of us in Delaware actually live east of the Mason-Dixon line. They drew our western boundary before turning west to create the part of the line that they are most known for.

Also, the Delaware boundary is the only one in the marked, in part, with boundary monuments made of stone from a different country. Mason and Dixon used a "light buff oolitic limestone cut on the Isle of Portland, Dorsetshire, England" to mark parts of the line.

The Delaware Geological Survey maintains a database of the boundary markers, some of which can be visited.

Can I Have One? Please?

Here's what greeted me when I left my office building at lunch today: a purple, three-wheeled, all-electric vehicle. I had to check it out.

The Myers Motors NmG is technically a motorcycle, but drives like a car. It is said to have a range of around 30 miles and an ability to go up to 70 miles per hour. NmG? Stands for "No More Gas."

The car was in Dover, visiting from its home in Ohio for a meeting of the Governor's Energy Advisory Council. They wanted hear a bit more about it, apparently.

Poking around on-line this evening, I find that the NmG is a resurrection of the Corbin Motors Sparrow. A few hundred were built out in California in the early part of this century, but company didn't make it.

Now, apparently sensing a renewed market opportunity, the Myers folks have bought out the Sparrow and redesigned/re-designated it as the NmG.

This thing looks very cool. It is a single-seater, but looks comfortable and has a cargo capacity of one shopping cart-full. I was intrigued by a set of golf-ball-style dimples on the backs of the front wheel covers and on the back of the vehicle itself. I assume they perform some aerodynamic function.

A range of 30 miles is not quite enough for my life in Delaware, but if I lived and worked in the same city, I can see this as a perfect commute-car. I can also see it as a courier car in a city.

I am tempted, though.

I've long wanted an electric car. I bought my first gas/electric hybrid Prius in 2001. I'm now on my second Prius.

I love my Prius, but there's still a spot in my imagination for a completely electric vehicle.